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This week’s $16.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry could see BTC price swing in either direction.

Bitcoin
BTC
$84,966
investors are preparing for the record-breaking $16.5 billion monthly options expiry on March 28. However, the actual market impact is expected to be more limited, as BTC’s drop below $90,000 caught investors off guard and invalidated many bullish positions.

This shift gives Bitcoin bears a crucial opportunity to escape a potential $3 billion loss, a factor that could significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks.

Currently, the total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these calls are set at $92,000 or higher, meaning Bitcoin would need a 6.4% gain from its current price to make them viable by the March 28 expiry. As a result, the advantage for bullish bets has significantly weakened.

Bitcoin bulls pray for a “decoupling” if QE restarts
Some analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weak performance to the ongoing global tariff war and US government spending cuts, which increase the risk of an economic recession. Traders worry about slower growth, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which had driven the S&P 500 to a record high on Feb. 19 before falling 7%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin bulls remain hopeful for a decoupling from the stock market, despite the 40-day correlation staying above 70% since early March. Their optimism stems from the expansion of the monetary base by central banks and increased Bitcoin adoption by companies such as GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), Metaplanet (TYO:3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

As the options expiry date nears, bulls and bears each have a strong incentive to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. However, while bullish investors aim for levels above $92,000, their optimism alone is not

enough to ensure BTC surpasses this mark. Deribit leads the options market with a 74% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 8.5% and Binance at 8%.

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls hold a strategic advantage heading into the monthly options expiry. For instance, if Bitcoin remains at $86,500 by 8:00 am UTC on March 28, only $2 billion worth of put (sell) options will be in play.

This situation incentivizes bears to drive Bitcoin below $84,000, which would increase the value of active put options to $2.6 billion.

 

Bitcoin’s price is down 6.5% in two days, and validating a bear flag puts the BTC price at risk of a deeper correction.

Bitcoin
BTC
$85,026
price has declined by more than 6.5% over the last two days after rallying to $88,000 at the beginning of the week.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin dropped from a high of $87,500 on March 28 to an intra-day low of $81,900 on March 29.

Bitcoin’s price drop coincides with a marketwide drawdown fueled by uncertainties over Trump’s trade tariffs and poor economic data. The ensuing sell-off in stocks has left market participants wondering how much deeper the drawdown can go.

Bitcoin wipes out liquidity in tumble to $81,000
BTC continued mounting losses on March 29, down 3% over the last 24 hours to trade just above $82,000.

Key points:

BTC price fell as low as $81,983 on Bitstamp, wiping out all the gains from earlier this week.

This came as US inflation data came in hotter than expected.

The February US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index reading showed inflation quickening — in contrast to the January print.

While the month-on-month and year-on-year PCE tally met market expectations of 0.3% and 2.5%, respectively, their core PCE equivalents were both 0.1% higher than anticipated.

The implementation of broad-scale US tariffs next week—the so-called Liberation Day on April 2—also compounded investor concerns across markets.

24-hour crypto market liquidations hit $338 million, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

Bitcoin wiped out more than $165 million in long positions between March 28 and March 29.

Additional data from CoinGlass showed intensive bands of buyer interest within the $70,000-$80,000 range in the six-month timeframe.

This suggests that Bitcoin’s price might drop further to sweep the liquidity within this range before staging a sustained recovery.

In the short term, Bitcoin appears to have taken out “a lot of liquidity,” with a local bottom sitting within the $82,000 and $80,000 range, according to analyst Stockmoney Lizards.

With major short liquidation levels sitting above $88,000, the analyst said that Bitcoin could be experiencing a classic weekend correction with a possible reversal next week.

“Typical weekend dump with next week’s reversal? At least, this is a possible scenario.”

Bitcoin bear flag hints at $62,000
From a technical perspective, BTC’s price decline on March 29 is part of its prevailing bear flag pattern.

Key points:

A bear flag suggests a continuation of the bearish momentum, with sellers taking control.

A temporary consolidation (flag) formed near $88,000, indicating a failed breakout attempt.

Bitcoin broke below key support levels, including the lower boundary of the flag at $85,800 at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

This confirmed the bear flag breakdown, pointing to more losses.

The measured move target from the pattern suggests a potential decline toward $62,000, representing a 25% decline from the current level.

The relative strength index remains below the mid-line, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Founder of MN Capital, Michael van de Poppe, argued that Bitcoin will likely some more downward momentum as the trend remains lower. He adds that the price could retest the lows at $76,600 “before going back upward.”

According to macroeconomic market analyst Capital Flows, however, Bitcoin could correct to the $72,000-$75,000 region if liquidity conditions remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin is on a path to $65,635 after confirming a “bear wedge” pattern.

Bitcoin faces renewed inflation pressure as US PCE data beats expectations — can BTC price action maintain crucial support to avoid another trip to multimonth lows?

Bitcoin
BTC
$84,987
sought a local bottom on March 28 while US inflation data came in higher than expected.

Bitcoin wobbles as PCE comes in hot
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD heading to $85,500 at the Wall Street open before reversing.

Down over 3% on the day, the pair saw lows under $84,500 on Bitstamp, marking its lowest levels since March 23.

The February print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index subsequently showed inflation quickening — in contrast to the result from a month prior.

While the month-on-month and year-on-year PCE tally conformed to market forecasts at 0.3% and 2.5%, respectively, their core PCE equivalents were both 0.1% higher than anticipated.

“Core inflation is back on the rise,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter concluded in part of a response on X, noting that the January numbers had also been revised higher.

Kobeissi argued that the current macroeconomic trajectory forms “the perfect recipe for stagflation in 2025.”

“March inflation data will be even more telling as the trade war rages on,” it wrote.

“PCE data coming up so it’s going to be a volatile day in the markets I reckon,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades thus wrote in part of his own X reaction.

Others maintained doubts over broader crypto market strength, agreeing that Bitcoin was not yet out of the woods despite holding above $80,000 for several weeks.

“Trend remains to be upwards for $BTC, but it starts to look slightly less good,” trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told X followers on the day.

“It’s shaking. Drop sub $84K and I think we’ll see a test at $78-80K and perhaps lower before we’ll bounce back up.”

Fellow trader TheKingfisher likewise saw little chance of a full bullish comeback on short timeframes.

“BTC While the short term price action may suggest a localized squeeze, the broader outlook doesn’t yet support the narrative of a sustained bull run,” he summarized.

“With volatility continuing to decline, current conditions appear more in line with a typical market cooldown. We could be approaching a seasonal reset, potentially front-running the familiar ‘sell in May and go away’ dynamic.”

Investor sentiment hinges on the FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s signals, which may sway Bitcoin’s next price move, according to crypto analysts.

Bitcoin may stage a recovery above the key $90,000 psychological mark amid easing monetary inflation concerns in the world’s largest economy.

Bitcoin’s
BTC
$84,376
over-two-month downtrend has raised numerous alarms that the current Bitcoin bull cycle may be over, defying the theory of the four-year market cycle.

Despite widespread investor concerns, Bitcoin may be on track to a recovery above $90,000 due to easing inflation concerns in the United States, according to Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research.

“We can see some counter-trend rally as prices are oversold, and there is a good chance that the Fed is mildly dovish,” Thielen told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This is not a major bullish development, rather some fine-tuning from the policymakers. We think BTC will be in a broader consolidation range, but we could trade back towards $90,000.”

Investor confidence may also be improved by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments indicating that the Fed will “remain on hold amid rising uncertainty among households and businesses,” wrote 10x Research in a March 17 X post, adding:

“Powell also expressed doubts about the sustained inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs, referencing the 2019 scenario where tariff-related inflation was temporary, and the Fed eventually cut rates three times.”
Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for cues on the Fed’s monetary policy for the rest of 2025, a development that may impact investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

FOMC meeting crucial for BTC’s trajectory: Analyst
Traders and investors will be watching for any hints about the ending of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QT) program, “a move that could boost liquidity and risk assets,”

according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

“The upcoming Fed decision could be a major catalyst for further movements,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“If Chair Powell spreads his dovish wings, Bitcoin could take flight on renewed bullish momentum.”
“However, persistent inflation concerns or a reaffirmation of tight financial conditions, such as elevated interest rates or continued liquidity tightening, could limit upside potential,” added the analyst.

Markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Still, investors have slashed their exposure to US equities by the most on record by 40 percentage points between February and March, according to Bank of America’s latest survey, raising concerns that recession fears may hurt Bitcoin’s price action.

A new alliance in the Web3 space seeks to help businesses stay ahead of crypto scams and elevate trust in the blockchain realm.

Web3 continues to build a global audience for decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and cryptocurrency exchanges. However, as the blockchain ecosystem grows, so do the associated risks.

Unlike traditional financial institutions, Web3 lacks a centralized regulatory body, placing the responsibility to safeguard their assets on users and service providers. In a decentralized environment, a single wrong click could lead to assets being irreversibly transferred to a fraudulent wallet, trapping users in a malicious chain of transactions.

This environment has given rise to various scams and illegal schemes, including phishing attacks, hidden withdrawal mechanisms and crypto money mule operations, in which unsuspecting individuals transfer stolen cryptocurrency for criminals.

A report from Chainalysis’ “Crypto Crime Report 2025” underscores the scale of these vulnerabilities, revealing that illicit transaction volume reached a staggering $51 billion in the past year.

A perfect storm for vulnerabilities
User awareness is one of the most pressing challenges. Even seasoned crypto enthusiasts can be caught off-guard by lookalike websites or tokens with hidden fees. The complexity of smart contract analysis and the speed of cryptocurrency transactions leave little room for error. This gap in user knowledge is a significant factor behind rising crypto crime rates.

To compound the issue, DeFi platforms are increasingly implementing compliance measures retroactively. This regulatory shift — once considered incompatible with the decentralized ethos — has forced many DeFi participants to rethink their strategies for managing and preventing malicious transactions.

The businesses imperative in Web3 security
While users must practice caution, businesses also hold a vital responsibility. Most people lack the tools to dissect smart contracts or assess the credibility of wallet addresses. As a result, Web3 service providers must integrate security measures that protect users without stifling the industry’s open nature. Implementing automated risk analysis and real-time transaction monitoring has become essential for companies aiming to build trust, prevent fraud and uphold the ecosystem’s integrity.

Platforms in the Web3 space can significantly reduce the incidence of scams by verifying contract legitimacy, assessing transaction histories and alerting users to potentially dangerous activities. In short, security-conscious businesses are not only doing their users a favor — they are strengthening the entire decentralized ecosystem.

Key players join forces for safer transactions
A new partnership stands as an ideal example of how to level up user protection. Crypto trading platform Changelly has taken a proactive business approach by partnering with Web3 Antivirus, an ecosystem of security solutions tailored to individual and enterprise needs.

Changelly enables users to swap over 1,000 tokens seamlessly without lengthy registration processes and complex procedures. While speed and convenience are critical, so is security.

In this collaboration, Changelly integrates Web3 Antivirus’s risk analysis capabilities directly into their platform and mobile app to help users avoid malicious interactions and ensure the safety of their transactions. The collaboration focuses on three main objectives:

Real-time address verification – Changelly uses Web3 Antivirus to verify every wallet involved in a transaction on the platform or via the app.
Risk alerts for users – When risks are identified, Web3 Antivirus immediately sends alerts. Changelly displays these alerts directly within their interface.
Filtering suspicious transactions – Web3 Antivirus blocks interactions involving addresses tied to unlawful activities, preserving the integrity of Changelly’s ecosystem and safeguarding users from malicious counterparts.
Keeping users out of harm’s way
Users are constantly facing the risk of unknowingly transferring funds to suspicious wallets. However, not all of them manage to stop in time, mostly due to the lack of proper tools. While this puts user assets in danger, it also exposes platforms to malicious interactions.